Modeling local coronavirus outbreaks.

This article presents an overview of methods developed for the modeling and control of local coronavirus outbreaks. The article reviews early transmission dynamics featuring exponential growth in infections, and links this to a renewal epidemic model where the current incidence of infection depends upon the expected value of incidence randomly lagged into the past. This leads directly to simple formulas for the fraction of the population infected in an unmitigated outbreak, and reveals herd immunity as the solution to an optimization problem. The model also leads to direct and easy-to-understand formulas for aligning observable epidemic indicators such as cases, hospitalizations and deaths with the unobservable incidence of infection, and as a byproduct leads to a simple first-order approach for estimating the effective reproduction number R t . The model also leads naturally to direct assessments of the effectiveness of isolation in preventing the spread of infection. This is illustrated with application to repeat asymptomatic screening programs of the sort utilized by universities, sports teams and businesses to prevent the spread of infection.

SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen tests provide benefits for epidemic control - observations from Austrian schools.

OBJECTIVE: This paper motivates and justifies the use of antigen tests for epidemic control as distinct from a diagnostic test. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We discuss the relative advantages of antigen and PCR tests, summarizing evidence from both the literature as well as Austrian schools, which conducted frequent, mass rapid antigen testing during the spring of 2021. While our report on testing predates Delta, we have updated the review with recent data on viral loads in breakthrough infections and more information about testing efficacy, especially in children. RESULTS: Rapid antigen tests detect proteins at the surface of virus particles, identifying the disease during its infectious phase. In contrast, PCR tests detect viral genomes: they can thus diagnose COVID-19 before the infectious phase but also react to remnants of the virus genome, even weeks after live virus ceases to be detectable in the respiratory tract. Furthermore, the logistics for administering the tests are different. Large-scale rapid antigen testing in Austrian schools showed low false-positive rates along with an approximately 10% lower effective reproduction number in the tested cohort. CONCLUSION: Using antigen tests at least 2-3 times per week could become a powerful tool to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic.

Examining SARS-CoV-2 Interventions in Residential Colleges Using an Empirical Network.

Objectives Universities have turned to SARS-CoV-2 models to examine campus reopening strategies. While these studies have explored a variety of modeling techniques, none have used empirical data. Methods In this study, we use an empirical proximity network of college freshmen obtained using smartphone Bluetooth to simulate the spread of the virus. We investigate the role of immunization, testing, isolation, mask wearing, and social distancing in the presence of implementation challenges and imperfect compliance. Results We show that frequent testing could drastically reduce the spread of the virus if levels of immunity are low, but its effects are limited if immunity is more ubiquitous. Furthermore, moderate levels of mask wearing and social distancing could lead to additional reductions in cumulative incidence, but their benefit decreases rapidly as immunity and testing frequency increase. However, if immunity from vaccination is imperfect or declines over time, scenarios not studied here, frequent testing and other interventions may play more central roles. Conclusions Our findings suggest that although regular testing and isolation are powerful tools, they have limited benefit if immunity is high or other interventions are widely adopted. If universities can attain even moderate levels of vaccination, masking, and social distancing, they may be able to relax the frequency of testing to once every four weeks.

The value of repeat patient testing for SARS-CoV-2: real-world experience during the first wave.

INTRODUCTION: Reports of false-negative quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) results from patients with high clinical suspension for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), suggested that a negative result produced by a nucleic acid amplification assays (NAAs) did not always exclude the possibility of COVID-19 infection. Repeat testing has been used by clinicians as a strategy in an to attempt to improve laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19 and overcome false-negative results in particular. AIM: To investigate whether repeat testing is helpful for overcoming false-negative results. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed our experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing, focusing on the yield of repeat patient testing for improving SARS-CoV-2 detection by NAA. RESULTS: We found that the yield from using repeat testing to identify false-negative patients was low. When the first test produced a negative result, only 6 % of patients tested positive by the second test. The yield decreased to 1.7 and then 0 % after the third and fourth tests, respectively. When comparing the results produced by three assays, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) SARS CoV-2 RT-qPCR panel, Xpert Xpress CoV-2 and ID NOW COVID-19, the ID NOW assay was associated with the highest number of patients who tested negative initially but positive on repeat testing. The CDC SARS CoV-2 RT-qPCR panel produced the highest number of indeterminate results. Repeat testing resolved more than 90 % of indeterminate/invalid results. CONCLUSIONS: The yield from using repeat testing to identify false-negative patients was low. Repeat testing was best used for resolving indeterminate/invalid results.

Repeated Coronavirus Disease 2019 Molecular Testing: Correlation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Culture With Molecular Assays and Cycle Thresholds.

BACKGROUND: Repeated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) molecular testing can lead to positive test results after negative results and to multiple positive results over time. The association between positive test results and infectious virus is important to quantify. METHODS: A 2-month cohort of retrospective data and consecutively collected specimens from patients with COVID-19 or patients under investigation were used to understand the correlation between prolonged viral RNA positive test results, cycle threshold (Ct) values and growth of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in cell culture. Whole-genome sequencing was used to confirm virus genotype in patients with prolonged viral RNA detection. Droplet digital polymerase chain reaction was used to assess the rate of false-negative COVID-19 diagnostic test results. RESULTS: In 2 months, 29 686 specimens were tested and 2194 patients underwent repeated testing. Virus recovery in cell culture was noted in specimens with a mean Ct value of 18.8 (3.4) for SARS-CoV-2 target genes. Prolonged viral RNA shedding was associated with positive virus growth in culture in specimens collected up to 21 days after the first positive result but mostly in individuals symptomatic at the time of sample collection. Whole-genome sequencing provided evidence the same virus was carried over time. Positive test results following negative results had Ct values >29.5 and were not associated with virus culture. Droplet digital polymerase chain reaction results were positive in 5.6% of negative specimens collected from patients with confirmed or clinically suspected COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Low Ct values in SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic tests were associated with virus growth in cell culture. Symptomatic patients with prolonged viral RNA shedding can also be infectious.

A Comparison of Less Invasive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Diagnostic Specimens in Nursing Home Residents-Arkansas, June-August 2020.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing remains essential for early identification and clinical management of cases. We compared the diagnostic performance of 3 specimen types for characterizing SARS-CoV-2 in infected nursing home residents. METHODS: A convenience sample of 17 residents were enrolled within 15 days of first positive SARS-CoV-2 result by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and prospectively followed for 42 days. Anterior nasal swabs (AN), oropharyngeal swabs (OP), and saliva specimens (SA) were collected on the day of enrollment, every 3 days for the first 21 days, and then weekly for 21 days. Specimens were tested for presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA using RT-PCR and replication-competent virus by viral culture. RESULTS: Comparing the 3 specimen types collected from each participant at each time point, the concordance of paired RT-PCR results ranged from 80% to 88%. After the first positive result, SA and OP were RT-PCR-positive for ≤48 days; AN were RT-PCR-positive for ≤33 days. AN had the highest percentage of RT-PCR-positive results (21/26 [81%]) when collected ≤10 days of participants' first positive result. Eleven specimens were positive by viral culture: 9 AN collected ≤19 days following first positive result and 2 OP collected ≤5 days following first positive result. CONCLUSIONS: AN, OP, and SA were effective methods for repeated testing in this population. More AN than OP were positive by viral culture. SA and OP remained RT-PCR-positive longer than AN, which could lead to unnecessary interventions if RT-PCR detection occurred after viral shedding has likely ceased.

When Clinicians Should Repeat RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2: Repeat PCR Testing in Patients with Pulmonary CT Findings Suggestive of COVID-19.

Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are occasionally repeated when clinicians suspect false-negative results, but the conditions under which repeated RT-PCR testing is warranted remain unclear. We evaluated the practice of repeat RT-PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 in 45 patients who were retested after an initial negative PCR test. Of these, the diagnosis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in four patients with typical chest computed tomography (CT) findings and in one patient without typical CT findings in whom the test result was strongly suspected to be false-positive. We recommend repeat RT-PCR testing only for patients with typical CT findings of COVID-19.

Repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for residential college populations.

Residential colleges are considering re-opening under uncertain futures regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for the purpose of containing outbreaks in the residential campus community. The goal of repeat testing is to detect and isolate new infections rapidly to block transmission that would otherwise occur both on and off campus. The models allow for specification of aspects including scheduled on-campus resident screening at a given frequency, test sensitivity that can depend on the time since infection, imported infections from off campus throughout the school term, and a lag from testing until student isolation due to laboratory turnaround and student relocation delay. For early- (late-) transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by age of infection, we find that weekly screening cannot reliably contain outbreaks with reproductive numbers above 1.4 (1.6) if more than one imported exposure per 10,000 students occurs daily. Screening every three days can contain outbreaks providing the reproductive number remains below 1.75 (2.3) if transmission happens earlier (later) with time from infection, but at the cost of increased false positive rates requiring more isolation quarters for students testing positive. Testing frequently while minimizing the delay from testing until isolation for those found positive are the most controllable levers for preventing large residential college outbreaks. A web app that implements model calculations is available to facilitate exploration and consideration of a variety of scenarios.